Like most teams during Spring Training, the 2007 Astros is team with questions. How these questions are answer will determine if the Astros is a five hundred club or the National League Central Division winner. I believe both are positive depending how things play out.

The first question in the National Media is “Where will Roger Clemens pitch?” Obliviously, the answer to this impacts the Astros greatly. Currently, the ace of the staff is Roy Oswalt whom on any year is a Cy Young candidate.

Andy Pettitte’s departure back to the Yankees left a hole for a reliable number two starter. Honestly, I don’t believe that Pettitte was in the Astros’ plans. He tweaked his elbow at the end of last year, and I am not sure if the Astros wanted to invest ten plus million on an arm that might not be reliable.

Tim Purpura determined to find a solid number two started traded for Jason Jennings from Colorado. (Jason Jennings (RHP), Miguel Ascenio (RHP) for Willie Taveras (CF), Jason Hirsh (RHP), and Taylor Buchholz (RHP)) Jennings has improved each year he has pitched in the majors and the Astros are gambling this trend continues.

The fact that Jennings is one of the few pitchers in the league coming to Minute Maid and think “Cool, Pitcher’s Park” after pitching at Coors Field. One drawback to this trade is that Jennings is a free agent after this season

Slated in the third spot of the rotation is Houston native Woody Williams, who was a standout player for the University of Houston, and was an “Astros Buddy” as a child. He does get a chance to live his childhood dream to pitch for hometown team.

Williams has been a reliable pitcher in his career, but how much is left in that forty-year old arm of his is another one of those questions.

The next question for this team is: who is going to round out this rotation? The last two spots seem to be up for grabs between four players. Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson, Matt Albers, and Fernando Nieve. I think on the inside track would be Rodriquez and Nieve and the other two will most likely be in the bullpen.

Don’t be surprised if all four will be in the rotation during the course of the season. Also, don’t be surprised if a young prospect gets the ball in his glove for a start named Troy Patton. Patton is a left-handed power pitcher, and Phil Garner loves this kid!

If Roger Clemens returns at midseason like last season will of course be a boast if the Astros want to make a playoff run. He only has the best ERA over the last three seasons. Not bad for an old man!

Can Brad Lidge return to form after a disappointing 2006 season? Lidge’s self-destruction certainly lead to the dismissal of Jim Hickey, and the hiring of Dave Wallace. Wallace has a great reputation as a pitching coach and is reported good working with young pitchers. It is his job to get Lidge’s head back on straight.

Fortunately, the Astros set up men are solid. Brad Wheeler and Chad Qualls are very reliable and if Nieve goes to the bullpen he should be a nice addition here. The responsibility of long relief will probably go to Dave Borkowski. Borkowski showed a knack for working a lot of innings if necessary. If Lidge returns to form, the Astros should have one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Brad Ausmus will be the opening day catcher who won the NL Golden Glove. Ausmus doesn’t throw base stealers like he once did, but this is a reflection of how much the league respects how he calls a game, and works with the pitchers. Humberto Quintero probably will be his back up.

Another question for the Astros is: Will Morgan Ensberg return to his 2005 form? He was on pace to hit over forty homeruns that year until a wrist injury. He had a great first half last season then tanked with a shoulder injury. This team had problems scoring runs last year, and they desperately need Ensberg’s bat.

Adam Everett will be our starting shortstop. The sad part about Everett is that people see the 240 batting average and thinks he sucks. Lets set the record straight right now! Everett is the best defensive shortstop in MLB. Every game he takes on hit away from the other team on plays that most shortstops couldn’t field. I wager if you asked Clemens whom he would prefer at short, a 300 hitter with an average glove, or Everett? My money is on Everett. Also, it has been reported that Everett is well respected in the clubhouse and is emerging as a leader on the team.

How much production from second base is the next question for the Astros? Craig Biggio is a sure Hall of Famer that is on his way to 3000 hits. He should break that barrier this season. The question then becomes, do you let Craig play regularly whose skills has diminished over the last few years or give Chris Burke his shot?

Well, Biggio will be the opening day starter and he has earned that right and Burke will play in the outfield. Don’t be surprised if Biggio struggles that Burke will be playing second base.

One of the few positions where there are not any questions for the Astros is first base. Why? Simple! The Big Puma, Lance Berkman! The sad part if not for Albert Pujol’s shadow more in MLB would know how good this guy is. Pencil in 40 homeruns and 120 RBIs! How many players in the MLB can you say that?

The Astros did make a big splash during the off-season with the signing of Carlos Lee. He gives the Astros a bat that can protect Lance Berkman. He is a legimate 30 HR and 100 RBI guy. He is a definite shot in the arm for the Astros’ offensive woes.

The mid-season call up; Luke Scott only hit .336 during the second half last season. Yeah, that’s all! He should be slated to be the other corner outfielder. The question here, can he repeat this for a full season?

Centerfield is a huge question for the Astros. Chris Burke will be the opening day starter in centerfield, but he is out of position. He does have good range, but he isn’t the defender that Willie Taveras is. He is the future second baseman once Biggio retires or struggles too much this season. The Astros want to get his bat in the lineup for things seem to happen positive if his bat is in the lineup.

Two reserves fighting for backup positions are Jason Lane and Richard Hidalgo. Jason Lane was last years opening day starter but struggled mightily last season. All the scouts in the organization know he is a very talented player. He has 40-homerun talent, but he hasn’t shown the mental fortitude that is necessary on the Major League Level.

Richard Hidalgo had a huge break out season for the Astros in 2000 with a 44-homerun season but struggled since on various teams. Purpura wanted to give him another chance and signed him to a minor league contract. He could make the team if he performs well during Spring Training.

One prospect that is getting a lot press is Hunter Pence. A scout said that Pence reminded him of Dale Murphy. Pence can hit for power, has speed, and has defensive skills. I think Pupura’s plan is to have Burke play centerfield this year. Once Biggio retires, Burke moves to second base and Pence will be the future centerfielder. However, don’t be surprised if we see Pence before 2007 season is over.

I think the Astros has one of the better benches in the Majors. Mike Lamb (3B, 1B), Orlando Palmeiro (OF), and Bruntlett (IF) are regulars that are returning. Lamb and Palmeiro both are good pitch hitters and Bruntlett is an excellent defensive infielder.

Another big off-season signing was Mark Loretta. Loretta can also play every infield position and is a good hitter. He could start for a lot of clubs, but he signed with Houston because he wanted to play for a winner. He is also a nice insurance policy if any of the infielders struggle.

Phil Garner now has more options with this bench than he did in the past.

During the last three seasons, the Cardinals and the Astros have been the elite of the National League Central. On paper, this year the Cardinals and Astros don’t appear to be as strong as in the past. The Brewers and Reds are improved. The division is probably the most wide-open than in years.

I think there are three keys for the Astros:

1) Ensberg must return to his 2005 form. If he does, the middle order of Berkman, Lee and Ensberg could complete with almost any team.

2) Lidge needs to also return to his 2005 form. He blew a few saves last year that would have never happen earlier in his career. We lost the division to the Cardinals by only one game. Lidge could have made a different here.

3) Either Clemens returns or one of the young pitchers need to step up. We will need on more reliable arm to make the playoffs.

If they three things happen, the Astros will return to the playoffs in 2007.

Possible Opening Day Lineup

  1. Biggio
  2. Burke
  3. Berkman
  4. Lee
  5. Ensberg
  6. Scott
  7. Everett
  8. Ausmus

Possible Pitching Setup

  1. Rotation
  2. Oswalt
  3. Jennings
  4. Williams
  5. Rodriguez
  6. Nieve

Long Relief

  • Borkowski

Setup Men

  • Wheeler
  • Qualls

Closer

  • Lidge
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Comments

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 10th, 2007 at 1:30 pm and is filed under Articles. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
3 Comments so far

  1. Carson Jarnagin on March 11, 2007 8:48 pm

    I love the concept here, as well as the insight into the ‘Stros upcoming season. As passionate fans we all recognize the unanswered questions facing our hometown ball club. Is Carlos Lee the run producer we need in the clean-up spot ($100m - he better be)? Can someone step up and solidify the back end of the rotation? Will a combination of Wheeler and Lidge be enough to nail down the close games? What about Burke in CF? Scott in RF? Ensberg, can he approach his 2005 performance? We shall see.
    One certainty amidst all these unknowns is number seven. Second baseman Craig Biggio will find a way to reach base. He will scratch and claw his way to 70 hits - to 3,000 hits, because that’s what he does. He’s been doing it since he was a fresh faced rookie two decades ago, and you know he’s not stopping now. This is a special year for Astros fans, as we will most assuredly be witnessing history this season. I believe Craig gets his hit at home in front of us, the way it should be.
    Vegas doesn’t have the ‘Stros as the early favorite to win the NL Central, but has Vegas heard of Hunter Pence? By now I bet you have.

  2. Sketkar on March 11, 2007 9:59 pm

    You pose quite a few interesting questions, Carson. We tried to tackle a couple of them like Scott, Burke, Lane and of course Pence, in show 15, which should be up on tuesday march 13th, look for it.

  3. Lambo on March 12, 2007 4:15 pm

    Carson,

    Thanks for the insight! You bring up a lot of valid points, and yes, Sketkar is right, some of things you brought up we discuss on our podcast.

    Like most teams in the NL Central, we have a lot of questions. I feel that on paper, the top four teams in the NL Central are very close. The team the remains healthy, and seems to create their breaks will win the division..

    Lambo

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